Tipping points in water quality and quantity for human consumption and agricultural use.
Kevin Thellmann
University of Hohenheim, Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans Ruthenberg Institute)
Challenges
A variety of ethnic groups have been engaged in swidden agriculture in mountainous areas of South-East Asia for centuries. These balanced subsistence farming systems have been increasingly replaced by intensive cash crop systems in the recent past. This lead to rapid deforestation and degradation of essential ecosystem services (ESS), especially concerning the hydrological cycle, water quality and water availability.
Objectives
1) Assessing the impact of past land use change on the supply of ESS using spatial models
2) Detecting potential tipping points in the supply of ESS (e.g. water quality)
3) Evaluating the model results using stakeholder preferences
4) Optimizing future land use scenarios to ensure the supply of essential ESS
Expected results
1) Quantification of ESS supply in the study region (Nabanhe Reserve, China)
2) Methodological framework to detect tipping points in water quality/quantity and other ESS
3) Comparison of evaluation methods for ESS
4) Supporting land use planning/policy guidelines with spatial model results
Aims
Contribution to support the integration of stakeholder validated ESS models into land use planning and decision making processes for environmental policies and regulations.
Methods
Multiple ESS such as water yield, water quality and sediment retention will be modeled with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs) on a landscape scale and compared for various points in time. Multiple algorithms will be tested for their applicability to detect regime shifts or tipping points in the supply of ESS. Combined with the input gained from stakeholder workshops, where preliminary model results will be shown and discussed, it is then possible to comprehensively assess the efficiency of land use planning/policy scenarios in regard to the provision of ESS.
Publications
Thellmann, K.; Golbon, R.; Cotter, M.; Cadisch, G.; Asch, F. Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-dominated Watershed Under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change. Forests 2019, 10, 176.
Lippe, M.; Bithell, M.; Gotts, N.; Natalini, D.; Barbrook-Johnson, P.; Giupponi, C.; Hallier, M.; Hofstede, G.J.; Le Page, C.; Matthews, R.B.; Schlüter, M.; Smith, P.; Teglio, A.; Thellmann, K. Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales. GeoInformatica 2019.
Thellmann, K.; Cotter, M.; Baumgartner, S.; Treydte, A.; Cadisch, G.; Asch, F. Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2418.
Thellmann, K.; Blagodatsky, S.; Häuser, I.; Liu, H.; Wang, J.; Asch, F.; Cadisch, G.; Cotter, M. Assessing Ecosystem Services in Rubber Dominated Landscapes in South-East Asia—A Challenge for Biophysical Modeling and Transdisciplinary Valuation. Forests 2017, 8, 505.
Häuser, I.; Thellmann, K.; Cotter, M.; Sauerborn, J. Ecosystem services and biodiversity of rubber plantations—A systematic review. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources. 2015, 10.
Oral Presentations
Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2019, October. Increasing socio-ecological resilience with ecosystem service assessments in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. ESP 10 World Conference – 10 years advancing ecosystem service science, policy and practice for a sustainable future, Hannover, Germany.
Thellmann, K., Golbon, R., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2019, April. Estimating hydrological ecosystem services under scenarios of land use and climate change in a mountainous watershed in Xishuangbanna, South-West China. Agricultural Land Use and Feedbacks in a Changing Climate Conference 2019, Stuttgart, Germany.
Thellmann, K., Golbon, R., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2018, October. Assessing the efficiency of land use planning to preserve hydrological ecosystem services under scenarios of climate change for a mountainous watershed in Xishuangbanna, South-West China. ESP Europe 2018: Ecosystem Services in a changing world: Moving from theory to practice, San Sebastián, Spain.
Thellmann, K., Golbon, R., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2018, September. Assessing the efficiency of land use planning to preserve hydrological ecosystem services under scenarios of climate change for a mountainous watershed in South-East Asia. Tropentag 2018: Global food security and food safety: The role of universities, Gent, Belgium.
Cotter, M., Thellmann, K., Baumgartner, S., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2017, September. Identifying Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services in Rural Environments of South-East Asia. Tropentag 2017: Future Agriculture: social-ecological transitions and bio-cultural shifts, Bonn, Germany.
Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., 2016, October. An analysis of land use change and its driving factors in the Naban River Watershed. Sustainable Rubber Conference 2016, Xishuangbanna, People’s Republic of China.
Cotter, M., Thellmann, K., Häuser, I., Sauerborn, J., Cadisch, G., 2016, October. Combining multi-disciplinary Ecosystem Service Assessments in rubber – challenges and boundaries. Sustainable Rubber Conference 2016, Xishuangbanna, People’s Republic of China.
Poster Presentations
Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2018, September. Identifying Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services in a Mountainous Watershed in South-East Asia using Spatially Explicit Modelling. FOOD 2030 Congress: Towards sustainable agri-food systems, Stuttgart, Germany.
Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., Asch, F., 2018, January. Modeling the impact of land-use change on ecosystem services and biodiversity in a mountainous watershed. Symposium: Umweltrisiken in der Wasserforschung - Inter- und transdisziplinäre Bewertungen und Perspektiven, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Thellmann, K., Häuser, I., Cotter, M., Cadisch, G., 2017, May. Multidisciplinary Ecosystem Service Assessments for Mountainous Watersheds in South-East Asia. Cross-Scale Resilience in Socio-Ecological Simulations Workshop, Leiden, Netherlands.
Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Krauss, M., Langenberger, G., Aenis, T., Martin, K., Cadisch, G., 2016, December. SURUMER - Sustainable Rubber Cultivation in the Mekong Region - Implementing Aichi Biodiversity Targets. CBD COP 13 (Thirteenth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity), Cancún, Mexico.
Häuser, I., Thellmann, K., Cotter, M., Sauerborn, J., 2016, August. Ecosystem services and biodiversity of rubber plantations – a systematic review. EcoSummit 2016, Montpellier, France.
